It has been brought to the attention of the entire weather community. 

Someone shared a picture from a CFS run. Showing an extremely large polar vortex sag over the whole United States of America. This would have led to everywhere North of Central Florida being below freezing. 

This is the run. If you look at the top you will see 2024-1-24. So as of today writing this is a 20 day in the future forecast, or roughly 492 hours.

The picture on the Right, is the current run for the same time frame. This is a lot more believable. Your normal polar vortex sag is occurring in this run. 

Anybody who has followed me for any amount of time has heard. This forecasting is about trending. One single run is not a trend.

This is what the climate control center in Denver, Colorado says about the CFS, or Climate control forecast system.

While the CFS data should not be used as a forecast to answer questions such as “what will the weather be at some far future point in time”, it will produce realistic transitions from day to day, with one weather system changing dynamically into another.

This model was designed for one thing to be able to locate Lows, and see switches occurring between them for patterns.

This is not the normal GFS model, and this model has only existed since September. It is what is referred to as a test bed model. So far it has pretty well been a failure of a model. The Climate control forecast system goes out 768 hours, and has proved to be completely unreliable.

Distance goes to show the impact. 1 person who has no idea what they’re doing. Forecasting can make in the world of weather. Next time I would ask the question. What is the trending?

Take, for example, the snow event that occurred over the Texas Panhandle on December 14th and 15th, 2023. In that instance, the predicted area didn’t experience snow; instead, it fell between Perryton and Spearman, Texas, with around two inches accumulating.

Forecasting snow involves considering various factors. Moisture is a key element, assessed through relative humidity (RH), which measures water vapor in the atmosphere. Dewpoints, indicating the temperature at which water vapor turns to moisture, are also crucial. Temperature plays a significant role in snow forecasting, as condensation depends on it reaching or closely aligning with the dew point.

During the December 14th and 15th, 2023 event, Amarillo’s temperature remained between 35 and 40 degrees. If it had dropped below 32 degrees for a continuous four hours, there would have been a higher likelihood of six inches of snow.

Several factors can influence snow forecasts. The first is the cold air not reaching the area, while the second is the heat island effect, commonly observed in concrete-heavy urban areas, which tends to mitigate snow chances.

The 11/12/2018 event over Lubbock, Texas, resulting in unpredicted 10 inches of snow, was affected by temperature meeting the dew point, allowing condensation to occur.

Topography, like the elevation difference between Dumas and Lubbock, Texas, can also impact snowfall. For instance, Delhart’s higher elevation at 3983 feet might experience snow when Lubbock, just 175 miles away, at 3202 feet elevation, might not.

Efforts are underway to improve snow forecasting programs, but ultimately, meteorologists acknowledge that despite having the right conditions, the final outcome depends on factors beyond human control.

Forecast for Wednesday, 10/4/23, including parts of Texas and Oklahoma. Hazards are 60 to 70mph winds, 1 to 2-inch hail, and the possibility of a tornado or two. 

The time frame is between 5 in the afternoon and midnight. CAPE ranges between 2700 and 3400 J/kg. Two modes are likely: linear and possible pre-frontal supercells. The line will eventually become linear, resulting in a higher wind threat and the possibility of spin-up tornadoes.

The mode is expected to be discreet, possibly supercells. The two most trusted short-range models, HRRR and NAM NEST, are showing a 30% chance of a tornado overall. Using the NAM NEST sounding, 2800 j/kg CAPE is more than enough instability to create strong cells. A 56 mph southwestern jet should lead to some rotating cells, possibly resulting in large hail.

This run is showing high-based cells at 800 mb or 5000 feet. The majority of this area is about 4200 feet above sea level, so the cells could be 800 feet off the ground.

For instance, September 8th, 2023 was a wild ride over the DFW network. The National Weather Service seemed to disregard and broadcast the full esteem of the storm. There was only one 80mph hour windbox dropped, and that was for the “Center,” that particular radar is located just North of Burleson, Texas. All the various radar reports, over the Fort Worth area, are conducive of 70-90mph winds. The KFWS radar in Crawley, Texas (SVR) super high-res storm radar was constantly picking up 68-108mph winds. Omitting to report greater than 90mph winds, including the 108mph wind conditions can be misleading to the impact and destruction capabilities of the storm, and provide proper warning.

Secondly, News companies were saying this storm event was tornadic. This is not accurate, as there was no leading edge rotation nor internal rotation. Yes, the GR 2 programs were picking up rotation. This would be a usual thing, though, during this type of storm where 90 mph winds are present. It is time the local news companies start putting more effort into forecasting storms correctly. They need to start grinding out long intense days, of 40-80 hour weeks, like us Storm Chaser’s due. Overall, it just shows how unequipped the media is for covering severe weather. I put hours and hours of time, education, research and chasing to keep others safe. Unfortunately, what I have described above is not the first instance of this happening. At this time I am frustrated and believe it is time that it comes to surface in some areas that the ball is being dropped, in order to send a warning or precaution.

In example, the tornado that happened over Van Texas or earlier in the year in the Father’s Day dracho line. This is the same dracho line that affected Shreveport, Louisiana. Again, there was no warning given until the severe warning came out for 80mph winds.

Would you like to know why the National Weather Service only lists 80 mph winds?

It’s due to the fact that the government is NOT obligated to pay for any of this, when the winds are under 90mph. 90mph winds is what is referred to as emergency life-threatening weather. Radar and ground readings listed a 128mph wind moving through Shreveport that night.

Last example, let’s look at the largest tornado that has occurred in the last 10 years. The “Rolling Forks,” tornado occured in Rolling Fork, Mississippi. We were sitting in Delhi, Louisiana watching it. The warning for this storm was a tornado emergency warning that was put to the Southern side of Rolling Fork. That is the reason if you notice on the page, people were saying they got the warning, the problem is only about 25% of the city knew it was coming. Unfortunately, this was due to error on part of the Jackson, Mississippi radar site.

In conclusion, we turn and burn out here, keep long hours, keep you and your family safe. We venture into the midst of severe weather events with my goal of better understanding storm’s behavior, improving forecasting and providing earlier warnings of impending weather. By monitoring and reporting on developing storms, I aim to contribute to timely and accurate weather alerts, potentially saving lives by ensuring communities have sufficient time to prepare for and respond to impending threats.

Thank-You for your Support and Following me

Meteorologist Bobby Francis: Trusting in God’s Plan, We Face the Storms, Rescuing Lives with Devotion and Fearlessness

While this tornado was not as destructive as larger ones, it still posed a significant risk to our community. Despite its smaller scale, it had the potential to twist and uproot trees, damage roofs, damage light polls, power outages, and create hazardous road conditions. The arrival of this unwarned and unanticipated tornado serves as a stark reminder of the unpredictability of weather systems and the need for constant vigilance.

The absence of an early alert left residents unprepared, potentially resulting in property damage, disrupted routines, and heightened anxiety among those affected. In situations like this, where even minor tornadoes can catch us off guard, a robust and timely warning system is paramount for minimizing the risks associated with these sudden and volatile weather phenomena.

Typically, the National Weather Service issues a tornado warning when wind indicated by sharegating radar reaches 40mph inflow and 40mph outflow or more, leading to a conclusion of a mesocyclone, and the abrupt need for a tornado warning afterwards.  However, on Sunday, September 25, 2023,  a tornado warning was initially issued for Hunt county including Commerce, Texas. Unfortunately, the tornado warning was not extended into Rains County as the storm cell moved through. 

During this time, a strengthening mesocyclone was formed over Point and Emory, with SVR Radar recording winds of 100 mph inward and 72 mph outward. The National Weather Service should have initiated a tornado warning and alerted residents to the possibility of tornadoes. Instead, the severity of the mesocyclone was downgraded, and a warning of 60 mph winds and 1-inch hail was issued for Rains County, leaving numerous people without power and many trees blocking roadways. 

As a meteorologist, my concern about the inefficiency of proper weather warnings cannot be overstated. Lives are put at risk, property can be damaged, and entire communities can be left in disarray when these lapses in communication occur. The frustration and anxiety resulting from these situations should not be underestimated.  

Furthermore, the erosion of trust in weather forecasting systems can lead people to disregard crucial warnings even when they are issued correctly, potentially worsening the impact of future disasters. It is incumbent upon us, as a society, to demand and support improvements in weather forecasting and alert systems.

We must invest in advanced technology, training, and procedures to ensure our communities are always well-prepared for the vagaries of weather. The above is collectively my mission in my storm chasing and meteorology career. By addressing these concerns and working collectively to enhance our weather alert infrastructure, I can help safeguard lives and property, providing a more secure future for all.